Pick of the day
One or two picks per league, chosen by the numbers and graded the next morning. Every pick we have ever shown is below, including the misses.
NHL
0–2 (0%) · last 10 0–2 · flat 1u −2u| Date | Pick | Price | Model · Book | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 2 | Joel Farabee over 1.5 shots @ SJS (alt) | −190 | 77% · 62% | +16 | Pending |
| Nov 2 | Artturi Lehkonen over 0.5 points @ CHI | −145 | 83% · 55% | +28 | Pending |
| Nov 2 | Sam Bennett over 1.5 shots vs DET (alt) | −195 | 70% · 66% | +4 | Pending |
| Nov 1 | Drake Batherson over 1.5 shots @ ANA (alt) | −195 | 68% · 62% | +7 | Miss 1 shots −1.00u |
| Nov 1 | Barrett Hayton over 1.5 shots @ PHI | −110 | 76% · 48% | +29 | Miss 1 shots −1.00u |
NBA
No graded picks yetA pick needs 8 games from this season behind it. Last season's games fill the hit rates until then, but they do not count toward a pick.
NFL
4–4 (50%) · last 10 4–4 · flat 1u −0.2u| Date | Pick | Price | Model · Book | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 1 | James Cook III over 88.5 rushing yards vs BAL | −115 | 63% · 50% | +13 | Miss 80 rushing yards −1.00u |
| Nov 1 | James Cook III over 88.5 rushing yards vs BAL | −115 | 63% · 50% | +13 | Miss 80 rushing yards −1.00u |
| Nov 1 | Josh Cuevas over 1.5 receptions @ BUF | +140 | 71% · 39% | +32 | Miss 1 receptions −1.00u |
| Nov 1 | Kirk Cousins over 240.5 passing yards @ NYJ (alt) | +110 | 75% · 45% | +30 | Hit 247 passing yards +1.10u |
| Nov 1 | Elijah Higgins over 2.5 receptions @ DAL | +140 | 70% · 39% | +31 | Miss 2 receptions −1.00u |
| Nov 1 | Josh Cuevas over 9.5 receiving yards @ BUF (alt) | −106 | 81% · 49% | +33 | Hit 15 receiving yards +0.94u |
| Oct 18 | James Cook III over 88.5 rushing yards @ LV | −115 | 63% · 50% | +13 | Hit 95 rushing yards +0.87u |
| Oct 18 | James Cook III over 88.5 rushing yards @ LV | −115 | 63% · 50% | +13 | Hit 95 rushing yards +0.87u |
College football
No graded picks yetNo CFB player lines posted yet.
How picks are made
Every posted over line is a candidate. We estimate the chance it clears from four things we can show you, then compare that with what the price implies.
- Trend. The player's hit rate over the window (last 10 games for NHL and NBA, last 5 for football), shrunk toward 50% so a short hot streak does not read as a certainty, and weighted toward the most recent games. Clearing the line by a comfortable margin adds a little; scraping by takes a little away.
- Matchup. How much of that stat the opponent allows per game, ranked against the league. The worst defence is worth about +5 points, the best about −5.
- History. The player's games against that opponent this season and last. Two games is the minimum to count; four or more carries up to ±15 points.
- Price. The probability implied by the odds with the bookmaker's margin removed. The pick's edge is our estimate minus the book's.
A pick needs an estimate of at least 60% and an edge of at least 4 points, at a price between −200 and +140. Players need 8 games this season (4 in football) before they are eligible; last season's games are shown in hit rates but never count toward a pick. The first pick is the best at a book line, the second the best at an alternate line, and when nothing qualifies we say so.
Picks are graded from the box score. A game the player sat out, or one that was postponed, is voided. The record counts hits and misses only, with a flat one-unit stake.
Hit rates describe the past; they are not predictions and not betting advice. DangleData is not a sportsbook and takes no bets. 21+ where applicable. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.