How It Works

Hit rate

A hit rate is the percentage of a player's recent games in which their stat finished over a given line. Ties (a "push", for example exactly 2 shots against a 2.0 line) count as misses, which is the conservative reading. Sportsbook lines are almost always half numbers, so pushes are rare.

The dashboard shows the last 10 regular-season games. Player pages also show the last 5 and last 15. Goalie hit rates only count games the goalie actually appeared in. NBA hit rates only count games the player actually played. Football hit rates skip bye weeks, and early in a season last year's games fill out the window until a player has enough of this season's.

Which line is used

Sportsbooks post a main line plus alternates. When a player has several, we pick the main line from the biggest U.S. books first (DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, Caesars, BetRivers), and otherwise the most common line across books. Use the Filter by Line buttons to see any alternate.

Sorting

Players with a line today are listed first, ranked by last-10 hit rate. To keep tiny samples honest, the ranking pads everyone out to a full 10 games (5 for NFL) with coin-flip games before comparing (5 for football): a 1-for-1 ranks as 55%, a 6-for-10 as 60%, a 4-for-5 as 65% and a 10-for-10 as 100%. The percentage you see is always the real one; only the order is adjusted. Ties break on games played, then season totals.

Opponent context

For every stat we show what the opponent allows per game, ranked across the league: shots and goals in the NHL, points, rebounds, assists and threes in the NBA, passing and rushing yards in football. For shots and saves in the NHL we show the opponent's shot volume: how many shots they allow per game (for shooters) or generate per game (for goalies), with a rank from 1 to 32. Green badges are favorable matchups, red are tough ones.

Pick of the day

Once a league has enough of the current season behind it, we pick one or two over lines a day from trend, matchup, head-to-head history and price, and grade them from the box score the next morning. The full method and every graded pick are on the Picks page.

Refresh schedule

Data updates every morning around 11 AM Eastern. On game days there is a second refresh about an hour before the first game. The timestamp in the status bar tells you exactly when the data was last loaded.

Limits

Hit rates ignore injuries, line changes, backup goalies and everything else that matters. They are a starting point, not a system. Please read the Terms of Use.